Euro area forecasting network
Description
Already in 2005 and 2006 the ETUI-REHS cooperated with the Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK) to produce a Euro-area economic forecast, which was presented at a press conference. It constitutes a valuable addition to the 'repertoire' of both the Institute and the ETUC in influencing the public debate on economic policy issues, and especially in multilateral and bilateral discussions with the European Central Bank, Commission and employers' organisations, not least in the Macroeconomic Dialogue. The forecasts are issued twice a year and presented at a press conference in Brussels. They are distributed electronically and via a small print run.
From spring 2006 the forecasting network will be expanded to make it a genuinely European, labour-friendly forecasting and policy recommendation network. Planning for this, including issues of funding, is still under way at the time of writing. Those institutes actually involved in model-based forecasting make a preliminary draft forecast as a basis for discussion (coordination of assumptions via website/email), which is sent to whole the group.
All institutes meet for 1.5 days (approx 4-5 weeks before publication) to discuss the draft in the light of own data/national figures etc, and to reflect on policy implications. A special topic should be agreed on well ahead of meeting, so that a draft can be discussed there.
The possibility of having a network website as a communications tool, hosted either by ETUI-REHS or IMK, will be examined by the end of November. It has not finally been decided yet whether to have an autumn report by the network. If not, the joint IMK-ETUI report/forecast will take its place.
Researchers
Andrew Watt
Senior researcher, ETUI-REHSphone: +32 (0) 2 224 05 12
Janine Leschke
Labour Market Researcher, ETUI-REHSphone: +32 (2) 224 04 69
